Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.010466 2.127610 2.250686 2.390100 2.544206 2.710002 2.902750
2025-08-17 1.819925 1.979485 2.154996 2.364003 2.608311 2.887653 3.235386
2025-08-24 1.694690 1.876671 2.083049 2.337408 2.646785 3.016821 3.502492
2025-08-31 1.614031 1.813263 2.044865 2.338575 2.708123 3.167976 3.801394
2025-09-07 1.554834 1.768333 2.021863 2.351540 2.779167 3.331111 4.127307
2025-09-14 1.483128 1.702527 1.967334 2.318433 2.784947 3.405179 4.335053
2025-09-21 1.419331 1.642199 1.914957 2.282735 2.781881 3.463374 4.522070
2025-09-28 1.360372 1.584558 1.862202 2.242050 2.767230 3.501460 4.679717
2025-10-05 1.338663 1.572423 1.866286 2.275850 2.855900 3.692624 5.095858
2025-10-12 1.319300 1.561906 1.871212 2.310001 2.946104 3.892608 5.553169
2025-10-19 1.298711 1.548527 1.871144 2.336359 3.025693 4.082364 6.020759
2025-10-26 1.265119 1.516507 1.844291 2.322839 3.043933 4.175266 6.326356
2025-11-02 1.232207 1.484731 1.817115 2.308350 3.061096 4.270316 6.657082
2025-11-09 1.197835 1.449793 1.784153 2.283623 3.060434 4.335060 6.939029
2025-11-16 1.165627 1.416612 1.752195 2.258485 3.056919 4.393666 7.217455
2025-11-23 1.144097 1.397151 1.738505 2.259588 3.095141 4.528719 7.686248
2025-11-30 1.127454 1.383724 1.732622 2.271844 3.151941 4.702552 8.281053
2025-12-07 1.098282 1.352040 1.699474 2.240543 3.133457 4.733269 8.538937
2025-12-14 1.069885 1.320651 1.665718 2.206776 3.108592 4.749224 8.763457
2025-12-21 1.041455 1.288494 1.629879 2.168268 3.073285 4.741571 8.925675
2025-12-28 1.035090 1.287097 1.638642 2.200261 3.162568 4.990733 9.850720
2026-01-04 1.029071 1.285908 1.647499 2.232569 3.254397 5.256212 10.917525
2026-01-11 1.021234 1.281826 1.651799 2.257493 3.334377 5.506705 12.039986